Adapted Screenplay

In these early months, it is looking like Adapted Screenplay will be a two horse race next year, with two period epics by noteworthy directors battling it out for the famous statuette. Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon” and Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” are two of the biggest contenders out the gate for the Academy Awards next March, which puts them both in a good position to win for their screenplays.

The biggest question mark surrounding the screenplay categories this year is whether Great Gerwig’s “Barbie” will be campaigning in Original or Adapted Screenplay. Despite the central story and concept of the film being original, as penned by Gerwig and her husband Noah Baumbach, it is ‘based’ on the characters Barbie and Ken by Mattel, which will most likely see it placed in Adapted. If Gerwig and Baumbach are to win their first Academy Awards, they will be hoping to be placed in Original Screenplay as their stiffest competition there will most likely come from Celine Song’s indie romance “Past Lives”.

Regarding rounding out the nominees for the ceremony in March, Denis Villeneuve will be hoping for another screenplay nomination for “Dune: Part Two”, repeating the nomination he received two years ago in the category for the first film. Meanwhile Lord and Miller will be looking for their first ever screenplay nominations as they aim to improve upon their showing from “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”. The first film in the animated franchise received only one nomination in 2019, in Animated Feature (which it won). The creative duo behind the series will be hoping that the strong buzz around the sequel, “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”, could see it get a nomination in screenplay – or even Best Picture.

Here are my predictions as of 27th July 2023:

Strong Contenders

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese)
2. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
3. Dune: Part Two (Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts)
4. Barbie (Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Dave Callaham)

Possible Contenders

1. Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
2. The Piano Lesson (Virgil Williams, Malcolm Washington)
3. The Colour Purple (Marcus Gardley)
4. The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)
5. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Kelly Fremon Craig)

Outsiders

1. The Killer (Andrew Kevin Walker)
2. Next Goal Wins (Taika Waititi, Iain Morris)
3. BlackBerry (Matt Johnson, Matthew Miller)
4. Ferrari (Troy Kennedy Martin)
5. Dumb Money (Lauren Schuker Blum, Rebecca Angelo)