Original Screenplay

In contrast to the stacked Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay has very few strong contenders for 2024. This is largely due to the ongoing SAG-AFTRA and WGA strikes, which as seen some notable films pushed back to next year including: “Bob Marley: One Love”, “The Book of Clarence”, “Drive-Away Dolls” and Luca Guadagnino’s “Challengers”.

Due to lack of strong competition, Celine Song‘s critically acclaimed “Past Lives”, is the strong frontrunner in this category, and at time of writing I cannot see anything else overtaking it to take home the Oscar in March. The only alternative contenders that could possibly cause an upset would be Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers” and Emerald Fennell’s “Saltburn”, the latter of which won in this category in 2021 for her debut “Promising Young Woman”.

Due to the crowded field in Adapted Screenplay, it would make sense for Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” to campaign in Original Screenplay if given the opportunity by WGA. In the much weaker line-up here, Gerwig and partner Noah Baumbach would have a much stronger chance of taking home their first Academy Awards.

Here are my predictions as of 27th July 2023:

Strong Contenders

1. Past Lives (Celine Song)
2. The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
3. Saltburn (Emerald Fennell)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet, Arthur Harari)
5. May December (Samy Burch)

Possible Contenders

1. Air (Alex Convery)
2. The Boy and the Heron (Hayao Miyazaki)
3. Rustin (Julian Breece, Dustin Lance Black)
4. Maestro (Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer)
5. Napoleon (David Scarpa)

Outsiders

1. Asteroid City (Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola)
2. Joy Ride (Cherry Chevapravatdumrong, Teresa Hsiao, Adele Lim)
3. Fair Play (Chloe Domont)
4. The Persian Version (Maryam Keshavarz)
5. The Iron Claw (Sean Durkin)

Alternative (Category Dependant)

1. Barbie (Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach)