Academy Award Predictions: Actor in a Leading Role

Despite the fall festivals being well underway and heavy hitting festivals TIFF and Venice being well and truly behind us, there has been very little change at the top of my Best Actor predictions. “Cillian Murphy”, “Bradley Cooper”, “Colman Domingo”, “Leonardo DiCaprio” and “Paul Giamatti”, have all retained their places in the top five slots, the only change being Murphy overtaking Cooper for the number one spot.

SAG-AFTRA strikes and lack of buzz has seen the likes of: “Anthony Hopkins”, “John David Washington” and “Kingsley Ben-Adir” drop out entirely. The biggest potential threat to the solid top five comes from “Jeffrey Wright”, whose central performance in American Fiction was met with universal acclaim. The film itself went onto win the coveted People’s Choice Award at TIFF, skyrocketing Wright, seemingly out of nowhere, into contention.

Another actor who has boosted his chances from the fall festival circuit is “Andrew Scott”, who stars in Andrew Haigh’s critically acclaimed romantic drama All of Us Strangers. Like Wright, Scott will be hoping for a festival season push to break into the all important top five slots by January ,when the Academy Award nominations are announced.

Strong Contenders

1. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) (↑1)
2. Bradley Cooper (Maestro) (↓1)
3. Colman Domingo (Rustin) (-)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) (-)
5. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) (-)

Possible Contenders

1. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) (NEW)
2. Teo Yoo (Past Lives) (↓1)
3. Joaquin Phoenix (Napoleon) (-)
4. Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers) (NEW)
5. Barry Keoghan (Saltburn) (↓1)

Outsiders

1. Koji Yakusho (Perfect Days) (↑1)
2. Matt Damon (Air) (↓2)
3. Michael Fassbender (The Killer) (↑1)
4. Gael Garcia Bernal (Cassandro) (NEW)
5. Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario) (NEW)