Academy Award Predictions: Actress in a Supporting Role

As foreseen in my previous predictions for supporting actress, “Lily Gladstone” will be campaigned in Lead Actress at the upcoming Academy Awards, and as a result the supporting actress category has been blown wide open. With Gladstone being the clear frontrunner in this category back in June, this category has now become one of the most openly competitive out of all major categories.

With Gladstone leaving vacating the top spot, I believe “Da’Vine Joy Randolph” to be the current frontrunner following her acclaimed performance in Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers, which placed runner-up at TIFF this month. The rest of the top five is rounded off with those who have been in contention for a nomination for a few months, including: “Emily Blunt” (Oppenheimer); “Julianne Moore” (May December); and both “Danielle Brooks” and “Taraji P. Henson for The Colour Purple looking secure for a nomination.

Academy favourite “Jodie Foster” will be hoping to break into the top five for her supporting role in LGBTQ+ sports drama Nyad. Unless the reviews for the still unseen The Colour Purple are poor when it is released near Christmas, I cannot see anyone outside the top six grabbing a nomination in January. With the SAG strikes still ongoing, it will be very difficult for any actors on the fringes of a nomination to gain much traction with a awards season campaign. This will play into the hands of those at the front of the academies minds when the polls open later in the year.

Strong Contenders

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) (↑4)
2. Danielle Brooks (The Colour Purple)
3. Taraji P. Henson (The Colour Purple) (↑1)
4. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) (↑3)
5. Julianne Moore (May December) (↓2)

Possible Contenders

1. Jodie Foster (Nyad) (↑4)
2. Viola Davis (Air) (↓1)
3. Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) (↑6)
4. America Ferrera (Barbie) (↑4)
5. Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) (↓1)

Outsiders

1. Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest) (NEW)
2. Rachel McAdams (Are You there God? It’s Me, Margaret)
3. Florence Pugh (Oppenheimer) (↓2)
4. Vanessa Kirby (Napoleon) (NEW)
5. Carey Mulligan (Saltburn)