Academy Award Predictions: Adapted Screenplay

Despite a vast number of new releases since my last predictions in July, Adapted Screenplay still appears to be a two horse race for the famous statuette. “Killers of the Flower Moon” and “Oppenheimer” are still the two favourites for Best Picture and as a result Adapted Screenplay. Both films have been met with universal critical acclaim and Oppenheimer has grossed nearly $1 Billion at the box office, making it one of the biggest films of the year. Killers of the Flower Moon is yet to be released in cinemas and is also set for an early streaming release due to it being produced by Apple+.

“Barbie” still remains a huge question mark regarding the screenplay categories, with the industry appearing to be split whether it will be placed in Adapted or Original Screenplay. In fact it is so much up for debate that we could see a split throughout awards season in general as the different branches have different rules for what is regarding adapted or original, it will all come down to how the WGA interpret it. Either way I cannot see Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach winning here, there best shot would be in Original Screenplay which is far less stacked.

The fall festivals have given us some new contenders for a nomination, despite it being unlikely that they will win the award come the ceremony next year. Both “American Fiction” and “Poor Things” have won top honours at major festivals recently and will most likely see them get a nomination in January. The increasing buzz around the two films does not bode well for “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” which may miss out on joining the exclusive club of animated films nominated for screenplay.

Strong Contenders

1. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan) (↑1)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese) (↓1)
3. Poor Things (Tony McNamara) (↑3)
4. Barbie (Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach)
5. American Fiction (Cord Jefferson) (NEW)

Possible Contenders

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Dave Callaham) (↓1)
2. All of Us Strangers (Andrew Haigh) (NEW)
3. The Colour Purple (Marcus Gardley)
4. The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)
5. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Kelly Fremon Craig)

Outsiders

1. The Killer (Andrew Kevin Walker)
2. Next Goal Wins (Taika Waititi, Iain Morris)
3. BlackBerry (Matt Johnson, Matthew Miller)
4. Origin (Ava DuVernay) (NEW)
5. Dumb Money (Lauren Schuker Blum, Rebecca Angelo)