Since my last predictions for Director back in June, there have been some big shifts across the cinematic landscape, causing a major impact on my predictions. Most notably since June we have had the Autumn/Fall festival circuit, with TIFF, Venice and Telluride all screening world premieres of hotly anticipated titles. From the fall festivals, one of the many releases to have stood out is “Conclave”, Edward Berger‘s Vatican thriller, following on from his previous success with “All Quiet on the Western Front” at the 2023 Oscars. Other directors that have recieved praise from the festival circuit are RaMell Ross and Luca Guadagnino for “Nickel Boys” and “Queer” respectively.
Films that had previously screened at Cannes in the Summer to strong reviews continue their momentum laso. Cannes, has favourably correlated with the Academy in recent times, with 3 of the past 4 Palme d’Or winners going on to receive Best Director nominations: Justine Triet –‘Anatomy of a Fall’, Ruben Ostlund – ‘Triangle of Sadness’ and most famously Bong Joon-ho for ‘Parasite’.
If the trend were to continue, there is a strong claim to make for Sean Baker has is romantic drama ‘Anora’ took home the big prize this year and could see the 53-year-old receive his first Oscar nomination. Another potential Cannes release that could score a director nomination is the inspirational ‘The Seed of the Sacred Fig’, helmed by exiled Iranian filmmaker Mohammad Rasoulof. Both filmmakers are without a nomination to date but trajectory suggests they could be heading for their first, albeit Rasoulof may have to settle for an International Feature nomination.
Another film that continues to build from its success at Cannes is “Emilia Perez”, with French director Jacques Audiard looking favourable to land his first nomination with the Academy since 2009’s “A Prophet”. Coming out strongest from the festivals however, is undoubtedly Brady Corbet, whose epic historical drama “The Brutalist” has received universal acclaim from critics, with Corbet taking home the Silver Lion for directing at Venice. Another surprise entry into the race following TIFF is Mike Flanagan following the surprise People’s Choice Award win for his sci-fi drama “The Life of Chuck”, which could have been years “Green Book” given the mixed critical reviews, until it was announced by Neon that the film will not be released until 2025, making it ineligible for the 97th Oscars.
Other potential contenders yet to screen include; Steve McQueen‘s World War II drama “Blitz”; Ridley Scott‘s long-awaited sequel “Gladiator II” and James Mangold‘s Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown”, starring Timothee Chalamet.
Full list of Director predictions – September 2024:
Strong Contenders
- Denis Villeneuve “Dune: Part Two”
- Steve McQueen “Blitz”
- Sean Baker “Anora”
- Brady Corbet “The Brutalist”
- Jacques Audiard “Emilia Perez”
Possible Contenders
- RaMell Ross “Nickel Boys”
- Edward Berger “Conclave”
- Greg Kwedar “Sing Sing
- Luca Guadagnino “Queer”
- Mohammad Rasoulof “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
Outsiders
- Pedro Almodóvar “The Room Next Door”
- Ridley Scott “Gladiator II”
- Jason Reitman “Saturday Night”
- James Mangold “A Complete Unknown”
- Todd Phillips “Joker: Folie a Deux”
Dan Loves Film 
Great predictions for Best Director. I have not had a chance to see all of these movies yet but I do have certain films I would like to see win. I thought Denis Villeneuve did an excellent job directing “Dune: Part Two”. It’s not at all easy to translate a complex book into a film but he pulled it off successfully. It’s a beautifully directed film that exhibits Villeneuve’s strengths as a filmmaker. I also feel he’s overdue for an Oscar win. Villeneuve is a fantastic filmmaker that has been making great movies for many years. He does have overdue narrative going for him. So, for these reasons, I would definitely like to see Villeneuve win the award for Best Director. But I have not had a chance to see all the movies so my predictions are probably going to change by the end of the year.
Here’s why I loved Dune Part Two:
LikeLiked by 1 person