Arguably one of the hardest categories to predict this year is Director, with so many viable options I could very easily get two or three of my predicted five wrong when the nominees are announced on the 17th January. What has not helped y predictions is the abundance of nominees at the Critics Choice, who nominated a total of eight directors, all of which could easily make the cut, plus Payal Kapadia, who was nominated at the Globes for “All We Imagine as Light”.
At this stage, the only two directors I am confident of receiving a nomination are Brady Corbet and Sean Baker, who have not missed any major precursor as of yet, and have done well across the critics’ groups. After these two, there are potentially seven filmmakers battling it out for the final three slots, and I could not possible call it at this stage. Jacques Audiard and Jon M. Chu have directed the two films most likely to receive the most nominations on the day, but both films have the most mixed reviews from critics, and the direction is considered to be one of the weaker elements on both films. Denis Villeneuve produced one of the most spectacular movies of the year, but the beloved director has been shutout by the Academy on multiple occasions, including for the first “Dune”, plus he missed at the Globes. RaMell Ross‘ experimentally directed indie “Nickel Boys” may prove to be too much for the more mainstream Academy members, and Coralie Fargeat‘s “The Substance” would be a rarity if nominated being a horror film. Edward Berger seems a safe choice for “Conclave” which has performed well across the board throughout award season, but the German director missed out two years ago for “All Quiet on the Western Front”, despite it most likely being the runner-up that year.
Very difficult to call this year and I can see the nominations going right down to the wire.
Full list of Director predictions – December 2024:
Strong Contenders
- Brady Corbet “The Brutalist”
- Sean Baker “Anora”
- Jacques Audiard “Emilia Perez”
- Edward Berger “Conclave”
- RaMell Ross “Nickel Boys”
Possible Contenders
- Coralie Fargeat “The Substance”
- Denis Villeneuve “Dune: Part Two”
- Jon M. Chu “Wicked”
- Payal Kapadia “All We Imagine as Light”
- Mohammad Rasoulof “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
Outsiders
- Pedro Almodóvar “The Room Next Door”
- Steve McQueen “Blitz”
- Greg Kwedar “Sing Sing
- Luca Guadagnino “Challengers”
- Ridley Scott “Gladiator II”
Dan Loves Film 
Your nailed it: two guaranteed, and many spots for some surprises…will the quiet awards momentum for “Sing Sing” mean a Director nomination to go with what WILL be Best Picture, Actor and Supporting Actor nods? We will see! Great writeup as always
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