Similar to male actor in a leading role, the category of Lead Actress is looking relatively straight forward this year with Mikey Madison, Angelina Jolie, Karla Sofia Gascon and Cynthia Erivo looking certain for a nomination. This does leave the door open for the final slot though open to potentially five actresses, all of whom have shown up throughout award season.
At this stage, I would say that Demi Moore has the edge as she has hardly missed anywhere, plus her film, “The Substance”, is the larger contender of the remaining performers’. If Moore was to miss out however, it will most likely be Nicole Kidman who takes her place for her performance in “Babygirl”, but the new, larger international contingent at AMPAS could see Fernanda Torres take the coveted final slot, as her film “I’m Still Here” has plenty of support in South America. Also in contention is Marianne Jean-Baptiste who has done well with critics’ groups, and Saoirse Ronan, who has fallen off in recent weeks having been in contention in my last predictions in September.
Full list of Lead Actress predictions – December 2024:
Strong Contenders
- Mikey Madison “Anora”
- Angelina Jolie “Maria”
- Karla Sofia Gascon “Emilia Perez”
- Cynthia Erivo “Wicked”
- Demi Moore “The Substance”
Possible Contenders
- Nicole Kidman “Babygirl”
- Fernanda Torres “I’m Still Here”
- Marianne Jean-Baptiste “Hard Truths”
- Saoirse Ronan “The Outrun”
- Tilda Swinton “The Room Next Door”
Outsiders
- Zendaya “Challengers”
- Amy Adams “Nightbitch”
- Pamela Anderson “The Last Showgirl”
- Kate Winslet “Lee”
- Julianne Moore “The Room Next Door”
Note: * indicates that the performance may be campaigned in supporting
Check out my Movie Reviews and other way-too-early Oscar Predictions via the links below.
Dan Loves Film 
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