Despite most of this year’s big male lead performances having been seen, it remains incredibly early to predict who will be the major contenders this coming award season, due to there being no major acting award precursors thus far. Not much has really changed in the way of new challengers or actors completely dropping out of the conversation, but the mixed reaction to Noah Baumbach‘s “Jay Kelly” does mean star George Clooney drops down in my predictions.
Many have fancied Dwayne Johnson to get his first ever Academy Award nomination for his rare dramatic turn in Benny Safdie‘s MMA drama “The Smashing Machine”. Johnson has received widespread acclaim for his role, and while the film itself may prove to be too unconventional for some audiences, they will likely get behind the former WWE star.
Previous Oscar winners, Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”) and Brendan Fraser (“Rental Family”) will be looking for second career wins, whilst three-time winner Daniel Day-Lewis, who has come out of retirement to star in his son’s film “Anemone”, will be looking for his fourth.
Rounding out potential nominees include Jeremy Allen White (“Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”), Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”), Jesse Plemons (“Bugonia”), Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”), and Lee Byung-hun (“No Other Choice”). With early frontrunner Timothee Chalamet still to have his performance seen in ping-pong drama “Marty Supreme”.
One performance to note is Paul Mescal‘s in the heavily tipped “Hamnet”. If Mescal was to campaign in lead, I would 100% be backing him for a nomination, and likewise for supporting. At this stage it is unclear in which category he will be campaigned so for now I will keep him as an honourable mention until things become clearer.
Full list of Lead Actor predictions – September 2025:
Strong Contenders
- Timothee Chalamet “Marty Supreme”
- Jeremy Allen White “Deliver Me from Nowhere”
- Leonardo DiCaprio “One Battle After Another”
- Michael B. Jordan “Sinners”
- Dwayne Johnson “The Smashing Machine”
Possible Contenders
- Daniel Day-Lewis “Anemone”
- George Clooney “Jay Kelly”
- Jesse Plemons “Bugonia”
- Wagner Moura “The Secret Agent”
- Brendan Fraser “Rental Family”
Outsiders
- Lee Byung-hun “No Other Choice”
- Colin Farrell “The Ballad of a Small Player”
- Will Arnett “Is This Thing On?”
- Oscar Isaac “Frankenstein”
- Joel Edgerton “Train Dream”
Note: Paul Mescal “Hamnet”. May be campaigned in supporting
Dan Loves Film 
Great list and insightful analysis as always!
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