Academy Award Predictions: Best Picture

Awards season is well and truly under way now that we are halfway through September. My previous predictions were very early in the awards calendar as the only major festivals to base my predictions on were Cannes and Sundance. Now, we are a couple of months further down the line and more festivals have been and gone, most notably Venice and TIFF.

TIFF in particular has a high correlation with the Academy Awards when it comes to Best Picture nominees. Since 2008, only one people’s choice winner at TIFF has not been nominated for Best Picture. This bodes well for Cord Jefferson’s “American Fiction”, which won the peoples choice award recently, and is now to be seen as a serious contender for a nomination, despite not being on many peoples radar a few weeks ago. The second and third placed films at TIFF were: Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers” and Hayao Miyazaki’s “The Boy and the Heron”, the latter being the first ever animated film to place at the festival.

Across the Atlantic, in Venice, the talk of the festival was Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things”. The surrealistic fantasy comedy appeared to be a bit too whacky for the Academy when the trailer was released in July, but off the back of stellar reviews and winning the coveted Golden Lion at Venice, it has jumped most of the pack to be a potential frontrunner in several categories, including Best Picture.

As a result of the festivals, most unseen films I had predicted in July have now screened and reviews are in. Some have proved more favourable than others, such as Bradley Cooper’s “Maestro“ as well as the aforementioned festival players. Films that have underperformed critically out of the festivals are Emerald Fennell’s “Saltburn”, Taika Waititi’s “Next Goal Wins” and Michael Mann’s “Ferrari”. As a result they may struggle to break into the pack of ten nominees, but they can never be ruled out.

Since my last predictions, there have also been developments as a result of the ongoing SAG-AFTRA strikes. The most notable news being that both Luca Guadagnino’s “Challengers” and Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Two” have been pushed back to 2024, so will not be in contention at the upcoming Academy Awards. There has also been no release date given yet for “The Piano Lesson”, all but confirming it too will be released next year.

Strong Contenders

1. Oppenheimer (Universal) (↑2)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple+) (↓1)
3. Past Lives (A24) (↓1)
4. Poor Things (A24) (↑12)
5. The Holdovers (Focus Features) (-)
6. Maestro (Netflix) (↑4)
7. Barbie (Warner Bros.) (↑5)
8. The Colour Purple (Warner Bros.) (↓4)
9. Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)(↓1)
10. American Fiction (MGM) (NEW)

Possible Contenders

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony) (↓2)
2. Air (Amazon) (↓1)
3. The Zone of Interest (A24) (↑1)
4. Saltburn (Amazon) (↓7)
5. Napoleon (Apple+) (↑2)
6. Rustin (Netflix) (↑2)
7. All of Us Strangers (Searchlight) (NEW)
8. Next Goal Wins (Searchlight) (↑2)
9. Ferrari (Neon) (NEW)
10. Priscilla (A24) (NEW)