Academy Award Predictions: Actor in a Supporting Role

There has not been too much change at the top of my predictions for Best Supporting Actor over the past couple of months. Despite the vast number of premieres across the fall festival circuit, no performance by a supporting actor has truly stood out enough to put them in contention to snatch the award from “Robert Downey Jr.”.

There have been some buzz surrounding “Mark Ruffalo” and “Dominic Sessa” for their supporting roles in awards contenders Poor Things and The Holdovers, respectively. There may only be enough room for one of them to sneak into the top five though with “Ryan Gosling” (Barbie) and “Robert De Niro” (Killers of the Flower Moon), looking like absolute locks at this moment in time.

This leaves the rest of the pack vying for the final two spots, with “John Magaro” and Ruffalo seeming the most likely. The only performances yet to be seen are that of “Colman Domingo” and “Corey Hawkins” for the most recent adaptation of The Colour Purple. There will most likely only be room for one of these actors to be properly campaigned, and with a likely nomination for Actor in a Leading Role this coming awards season, Colman Domingo seems the most likely to get backed for a nomination.

Strong Contenders

1. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
2. Ryan Gosling (Barbie) (↑1)
3. Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) (↑1)
4. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things) (↑5)
5. John Magaro (Past Lives) (↓3)

Possible Contenders

1. Colman Domingo (The Colour Purple)
2. Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers) (↑5)
3. Charles Melton (May December) (↓1)
4. Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) (↑2)
5. Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry) (NEW)

Outsiders

1. Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon) (↓1)
2. Matt Damon (Oppenheimer) (NEW)
3. Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers) (NEW)
4. Chris Messina (Air) (↓1)
5. Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) (NEW)