Academy Award Predictions: Original Screenplay

Like Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay is looking like a two horse race between two, almost certain, Best Picture nominees. Both Celine Song‘s “Past Lives” and Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers” have received strong reviews this year, with The Holdovers finishing runners-up at TIFF in September.

The festival season has since changes in the top five with Bradley Cooper‘s “Maestro” leapfrogging several competitors on its way to getting a possible nomination in January. Maestro’s success is at the expense of Emerald Fennel‘s “Saltburn” which has received mixed reviews so far, and is hanging on to a top five slot.

There is still the huge question mark whether or not “Barbie” will be in Original or Adapted Screenplay this year. Despite it being reported that the film will be campaigned in original, it will ultimately be down to the Academy once the voting polls open in a few weeks. If Barbie was to be put into Original Screenplay, it would become a serious challenger to both Past Lives and The Holdovers.

Strong Contenders

1. Past Lives (Celine Song)
2. The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
3. Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet, Arthur Harari) (↑1)
4. Maestro (Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer) (↑5)
5. Saltburn (Emerald Fennell) (↓2)

Possible Contenders

1. May December (Samy Burch) (↓1)
2. Air (Alex Convery) (↓1)
3. Rustin (Julian Breece, Dustin Lance Black)
4. The Boy and the Heron (Hayao Miyazaki) (↓2)
5. Napoleon (David Scarpa)

Outsiders

1. Asteroid City (Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola)
2. Perfect Days (Wim Wenders, Takuma Takasaki) (NEW)
3. Fair Play (Chloe Domont)
4. Dream Scenario (Kristoffer Borgli) (NEW)
5. Priscilla (Sofia Coppola) (NEW)

Alternative (Category Dependant)

1. Barbie (Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach)