Best Picture Predictions: September 2024

We are officially in awards season, and since my last predictions back in June, two of the major international film festivals have taken place, TIFF and Venice. Both festivals are strong indicators as to which films may be staking their claim at the upcoming Academy Awards, with TIFF in particular having a strong correlation when it comes to matching its top prize winners with the Academy. In fact since 2008, only one People’s Choice Award winner at TIFF has not gone onto receive a Best Picture nomination, that was Lebanese comedy/drama “Where Do We Go Now?” in 2011. Six TIFF winners in that time have gone onto win the top Oscar prize, the most recent being “Nomadland” in 2020, which too won the Golden Lion at Venice.

This bodes well for this year’s surprise TIFF winner, Mike Flanagan‘s sci-fi/drama “The Life of Chuck”. Adapted from the Stephen King‘s novella of the same name from 2020, the film is told in reverse exploring the life-affirming story of Charles Krantz (Tom Hiddlestone among others), with its framing device taking place in an apocalyptic future. The film received mixed reviews from critics but managed to beat out stiff competition from Sean Baker‘s “Anora” and Jacques Audiard‘s “Emilia Perez”, which came in the runner up positions. However, distributor Neon have since announced the film will not be releases theatrically until 2025, making it ineligible for the upcoming Academy Awards.

Other acclaimed films that have premiered during the fall festival circuit include: Brady Corbet‘s epic drama, “The Brutalist”; Edward Berger‘s Vatican thriller “Conclave”; RaMell Ross‘ “Nickel Boys”; and Pedro Almodóvar‘s Golden Lion winning “The Room Next Door”.

Films that have premiered to middling reviews during the festivals have dropped in my predictions, these include: “Joker: Folie a Deux”; “Maria”; “Nightbitch”; and “The Piano Lesson”. There are also a handful of films yet to have their world premiere, that are worth keeping an eye on, as well as Greg Kwedar‘s “Sing Sing”, an early frontrunner, but has had a poor box office run, grossing under $3 million, which may hinder its awards chances.

Full list of Best Picture predictions – September 2024:

Strong Contenders

1. “Anora” | Neon | dir. Sean Baker
2. “Sing Sing” | A24 | dir. Greg Kwedar
3. “Dune: Part Two” | Warner Bros.| dir. Denis Villeneuve
4. “Blitz” | Apple | dir. Steve McQueen
5. “The Brutalist” | A24 | dir. Brady Corbet
6. “Conclave” | Focus Features | dir. Edward Berger
7. “Emilia Perez” | Netflix | dir. Jacques Audiard
8. “Nickel Boys” | Amazon MGM Studios| dir. RaMell Ross
9. “A Complete Unknown” | Searchlight | dir. James Mangold
10. “Saturday Night” | Sony | dir. Jason Reitman

Possible Contenders

1. “Queer” | A24 | dir. Luca Guadagnino
2. “The Piano Lesson” | Netflix | dir. Malcom Washington
3. “Joker: Folie a Deux” | Warner Bros. | dir. Todd Phillips
4. “The Room Next Door” | Sony | dir. Pedro Almodóvar
5. “Gladiator II” | Paramount | dir. Ridley Scott
6. “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” | Neon | dir. Mohammad Rasoulof
7. “A Real Pain” | Searchlight | dir. Jesse Eisenberg
8. “The Apprentice” | Briarcliff | dir. Ali Abbasi
9. “Here” | Sony | dir. Robert Zemeckis
10. “Challengers” | Amazon MGM Studios | dir. Luca Guadagnino

Outsiders

1. “Wicked” | Universal | dir. Jon M. Chu
2. “Juror #2” | Warner Bros. | dir. Clint Eastwood
3. “Nightbitch” | Searchlight | dir. Marielle Heller
4. “The Wild Robot” | Universal | dir. Chris Sanders
5. “September 5” | Paramount | dir. Tim Fehlbaum
6. “All We Imagine as Light” | Sideshow | dir. Payal Kapadia
7. “Nosferatu” | Focus Features | dir. Robert Eggers
8. “Didi” | Focus Features | dir. Sean Wang
9. “His Three Daughters” | Netflix | dir. Azazel Jacobs
10. “Maria” | Netflix | dir. Pablo Larrain

• 2025-2026 Movie Awards Season
  • 2026 Academy Award Predictions: June
  • 2026 Academy Award Predictions: September
• All Movie Reviews & Posts
• Movie Rankings
  • A24 Movies Ranked