As proven by “Barbie” last year, the screenplay categories are not as cut and dry as they may seem. Throughout the previous award season, Greta Gerwig‘s phenomenon showed up in Original Screenplay category, only to be placed in Adapted by the Academy at the death. Something similar may happen this year with prison based drama “Sing Sing”. Co-written by Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley, the film is not based on any existing material but does tell the inspirational true story of Rehabilitation Through the Arts programme and features several incarcerated alumni of the programme playing themselves. Whichever category it is placed in, it will be a sure fire contender, but with me personally predicting it to be placed in Adapted at this point in time, I have it lower than expected on this Original Screenplay prediction list.
The Academy strongly favours writer-directors when it comes to the screenplay categories, and I cannot see this trend changing at the upcoming ceremony next Spring. In fact, out of the fifteen films I am considering at having any shot of getting an original Screenplay nomination, only two of these are not written or co-written by the director. Luca Guadagnino‘s tennis drama “Challengers” and Ali Abbasi’s Donald Trump biopic “The Apprentice” are the only two outliers, having been penned by Justin Kuritzkes and Gabriel Sherman respectively. Kuritzkes will be hoping for a double nomination come announcement morning having also written the script for Guadagnino’s “Queer” this year, adapted from the William S. Burroughs novel of the same name.
There have been no major screenplay winners as of yet to focus on an early frontrunner, other than Coralie Fargeat‘s screenplay win at Cannes for her body horror “The Substance”, which, despite excellent reviews, will most likely prove to be too bizarre for the Academy voters.
Full list of Original Screenplay predictions – September 2024:
Strong Contenders
- “Anora” (Sean Baker)
- “The Brutalist” (Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold)
- “Blitz” (Steve McQueen)
- “Saturday Night” (Jason Reitman, Gil Kenan)
- “A Real Pain” (Jesse Eisenberg)
Possible Contenders
- “Challengers” (Justin Kuritzkes)
- “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Mohammad Rasoulof)
- “Hard Truths” (Mike Leigh)
- *”Sing Sing” (Greg Kwedar, Clint Bentley)
- “Babygirl” (Halina Reijn)
Outsiders
- “The Substance” (Coralie Fargeat)
- “The Apprentice” (Gabriel Sherman)
- “Didi” (Sean Wang)
- “His Three Daughters” (Azazel Jacobs)
- “Kinds of Kindness” (Efthymis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos)
Note: * indicates a film that may be placed in Adapted Screenplay
Check out my Movie Reviews and other way-too-early Oscar Predictions via the links below.
Dan Loves Film 
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