Similar to Original Screenplay, Adapted will more than likely comprise of films that find themselves also securing a Best Picture nomination. However, there are more adapted contenders than original this year, so there is room for one or possible two Best Picture nominees missing out.
As far as winners are concerned, I cannot see anything other than a “Conclave” win, for arguably the strongest screenplay of the year, and I feel it may sweep having seen “Sing Sing” miss at the Globes. The prison drama is undoubtedly the second strongest of the nominees, with “Nickel Boys” and “Dune: Part Two” considered as more directorial achievements, but both films will likely get a nomination.
The most likely fifth nominee is probably “Emilia Perez”, which I am expecting to get the most nominations when the nominees are announced on 17th January, despite its screenplay receiving strong criticism. This will result in “A Complete Unknown” and “Wicked” missing out, however, the sheer strength of the latter in multiple categories may see it sneak in, most likely at the expense of “Dune: Part Two”.
Full list of Adapted Screenplay predictions – December 2024:
Strong Contenders
- “Conclave” (Peter Straughan)
- “Sing Sing” (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar)
- “Nickel Boys” (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes)
- “Emilia Perez” (Jacques Audiard)
- “Dune: Part Two” (Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts)
Possible Contenders
- “Wicked” (Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox)
- “A Complete Unknown” (James Mangold, Jay Cocks)
- “The Room Next Door” (Pedro Almodóvar)
- “I’m Still Here” (Walter Salles, Murilo Hauser, Heitor Lorega)
- “Queer” (Justin Kuritzkes)
Outsiders
- “The Piano Lesson” (Virgil Williams, Malcolm Washington)
- “Hit Man” (Richard Linklater, Glen Powell)
- “The Wild Robot” (Chris Sanders)
- “Nightbitch” (Marielle Heller)
- “Nosferatu” (Robert Eggers)
Check out my Movie Reviews and other way-too-early Oscar Predictions via the links below.
Dan Loves Film 
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