Final Oscar Predictions

The moment of truth is almost here, the 97th Academy Awards are taking place this coming Sunday and below are my final predictions going into the ceremony. It has been one of the most unpredictable races in years, with no film dominating award season throughout like “Oppenheimer” did last year. It has also been a season of controversies, which has seen the likes of “Emilia Perez” fall off drastically despite going into Sunday’s ceremony with the most nominations.

I started making my very early predictions back in March, and it has transpired that only two of the ten films I predicted almost a year ago made the eventual Best Picture line-up “Dune: Part Two” and “Conclave”. These predictions can be seen here.

Even though we have had all the guild and industry precursors announce their winners over the past few weeks, it is still difficult to call several major categories, ultimately making a Best Picture prediction tricky as it is hard to predict a film’s overall package.

Best Picture

Starting of with the big one, Best Picture, a category that has seen the likes of “The Brutalist” and “Emilia Perez” emerge as frontrunners previously. Both films took home their respective top prize as the Golden Globes at the start of the year, and continued to garner numerous nominations from every awards body. However, controversy surrounding its star and director has seen the latter drop way off in recent weeks, and is now considered to be out the running.

Following wins at Critics Choice, PGA and DGA “Anora” will be going into the ceremony as the frontrunner, with its most likely competitor being Edward Berger‘s “Conclave”, which has won top prizes at BAFTA and SAG in the past week. The Screen Actors Guild makes up the largest voting body at the Academy, and with the preferential ballot system in place at the Oscars, there is a good chance that the Papal drama could snatch Best Picture away from Sean Baker and A24. It is extremely tricky to call, and we have to start analysing potential winning packages. “Anora” has the potential to win in several categories, including: Editing, Original Screenplay, Actress and Director, a formidable haul if it comes off. However, none of these categories are guaranteed as Sean Baker, and Mikey Madison, face stiff competition.

“Conclave” is all but guaranteed an Adapted Screenplay win, which helps massively, however, it is unlikely to win anything else other than Editing, which would match the Best Picture package “Argo” accumulated twelve years ago.

It could go either way but based on potential wins, I will give the edge to “Anora”.

• “Anora” | Neon | dir. Sean Baker – Predicted Winner
• “The Brutalist” | A24 | dir. Brady Corbet
• “A Complete Unknown” | Searchlight | dir. James Mangold
• “Conclave” | Focus Features | dir. Edward Berger
• “Dune: Part Two” | Warner Bros.| dir. Denis Villeneuve
• “Emilia Perez” | Netflix | dir. Jacques Audiard
• “I’m Still Here” | Sony Pictures Classics | dir. Walter Salles
• “Nickel Boys” | Amazon MGM | dir. RaMell Ross
• “The Substance” | Mubi | dir. Coralie Fargeat
• “Wicked” | Universal | dir. Jon M. Chu

Director

This is a two horse race between Baker and Corbet, both of whom have won major awards this season. Corbet established himself as the frontrunner early in the season with a win at the Golden Globes, which has since followed with a BAFTA win. However, following a baffling Critics Choice Awards, where the unnominated Jon M. Chu was announced Best Director, Corbet seemed to have lost some momentum, with Baker taking home the prestigious DGA, which could be crucial.

Similar to Best Picture this could go either way, but based on the fact I am backing “Anora” to prevail as the night’s big winner, it will have to show up in several other categories, this being one of them.

• Jacques Audiard “Emilia Perez”
• Sean Baker “Anora” – Predicted Winner
• Brady Corbet “The Brutalist”
• Coralie Fargeat “The Substance”
• James Mangold “A Complete Unknown”

Actor in a Leading Role

Adrien Brody looked to be a season sweeper having taken home Best Actor awards at Golden Globes, BAFTA and Critics Choice. However, following an extensive Oscar campaign, Timothee Chalamet finally managed to get a big win at the SAGs on Sunday, proving that this race is far from over. If Chalamet were to win, he would become the youngest ever recipient of the award, beating the previous record set by Brody back in 2003 for his work in “The Pianist”.

I would not be too surprised by a Chalamet win, but I think Brody’s performance is too strong and more deserving of the award…plus Timothee will win it one day anyway.

• Adrien Brody “The Brutalist” – Predicted Winner
• Timothee Chalamet “A Complete Unknown”
• Colman Domingo “Sing Sing”
• Ralph Fiennes “Conclave”
• Sebastian Stan “The Apprentice”

Actress in a Leading Role

Lead Actress is shaping up to be very similar to Lead Actor as Demi Moore appeared to be sweeping the season, however, Mikey Madison managed to take home the award at the BAFTAs last week, her only televised win of the season. Moore swiftly bounced back with a win at the SAG Awards on Sunday but BAFTA have an excellent track record with their acting awards when it comes to predicting the Oscars. The Globes, SAG and Critics Choice all have a reputation for favouring narratives surrounding a performer, of which Moore has with his significant comeback role in “The Substance”. BAFTA and the Academy however, do not tend to do so, making the BAFTA the best precursor to follow regarding acting wins. In the past 20 years (with the exception of the BAFTA jury years), BAFTA has aligned with the Oscars in this category every year barring two, 2010 and 2013.

Based on this, and to add to my predicted “Anora” haul, I expect Mikey Madison to take it, but it could very easily be Moore also. Just to note there is a slight outside chance that Fernanda Torres could cause one of the biggest ever Oscar upsets here, as “I’m Still Here” has been surging in recent weeks.

• Cynthia Erivo “Wicked”
• Karla Sofia Gascon “Emilia Perez”
• Mikey Madison “Anora” – Predicted Winner
• Demi Moore “The Substance”
• Fernanda Torres “I’m Still Here”

Actor in a Supporting Role

Only one winner here, Kieran Culkin has swept all season and faces very little competition in a pretty week category.

• Yura Borisov “Anora”
• Kieran Culkin “A Real Pain” – Predicted Winner
• Edward Norton “A Complete Unknown”
• Guy Pearce “The Brutalist”
• Jeremy Strong “The Apprentice”

Actress in a Supporting Role

Same here, Zoe Saldana has won everything. Even with all the controversy surrounding “Emilia Perez”, she has managed to distance herself from the pack in another underwhelming category. Her only real threat was Ariana Grande, but the pop star’s awards campaign has never really taken off.

• Monica Barbaro “A Complete Unknown”
• Ariana Grande “Wicked”
• Felicity Jones “The Brutalist”
• Isabella Rossellini “Conclave”
• Zoe Saldana “Emilia Perez” – Predicted Winner

Original Screenplay

Another competitive category, with “Anora”, “The Substance” and “A Real Pain” all winning precursors ahead of the Oscars. In the critics’ circles, and at the WGA “Anora” has looked incredibly strong, but it did lose out to “The Substance” at Critics Choice despite winning Best Picture. “A Real Pain” surprised at BAFTA where it was only up for two awards on the night, but won both, surprising even writer-director Jesse Eisenberg.

Another competitive category but I am confident “Anora” will take it.

• “Anora” (Sean Baker) – Predicted Winner
• “The Brutalist” (Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold)
• “A Real Pain” (Jesse Eisenberg)
• “September 5” (Tim Fehlbaum, Moritz Binder)
• “The Substance” (Coralie Fargeat)

Adapted Screenplay

One of the biggest locks of the night. “Conclave” has won everywhere, including at the Golden Globes where there is only one screenplay category. This guaranteed win helps with its Best Picture chances.

• “A Complete Unknown” (James Mangold, Jay Cocks)
• “Conclave” (Peter Straughan) – Predicted Winner
• “Emilia Perez” (Jacques Audiard)
• “Nickel Boys” (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes)
• “Sing Sing” (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar)

Animated Feature

• “Flow”| Janus | dir. Gints Zilbalodis – Predicted Winner
• “Inside Out 2” | Disney | dir. Kelsey Mann
• “Memoir of a Snail” | IFC | dir. Adam Elliot
• “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” | Netflix | dir. Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham
• “The Wild Robot” | Universal | dir. Chris Sanders

International Feature

• “Emilia Perez” | France | dir. Jacques Audiard
• “Flow” | Latvia | dir. Gints Zilbalodis
• “The Girl with the Needle” | Denmark | dir. Magnus von Horn
• “I’m Still Here” | Brazil | dir. Walter Salles – Predicted Winner
• “The Seed of a Sacred Fig” | Germany | dir. Mohammad Rasoulof

Documentary Feature

• “Black Box Diaries” | MTV
• “No Other Land” | Cinetic Media – Predicted Winner
• “Porcelain War” | Picturehouse
• “Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat” | Kino Lorber
• “Sugarcane” | Variance

Cinematography

• “The Brutalist” | Lol Crawley – Predicted Winner
• “Dune: Part Two” | Greig Fraser
• “Emilia Perez” | Paul Gulhaume
• “Maria” | Edward Lachman
• “Nosferatu” | Jarin Blaschke

Editing

• “Anora” | Sean Baker
• “The Brutalist” | David Jancso
• “Conclave” | Nick Emerson – Predicted Winner
• “Emilia Perez” | Juliette Welfling
• “Wicked” | Myron Kerstein

Production Design

• “The Brutalist”
• “Conclave”
• “Dune: Part Two”
• “Nosferatu”
• “Wicked” – Predicted Winner

Costume Design

• “A Complete Unknown”
• “Conclave”
• “Gladiator II”
• “Nosferatu”
• “Wicked” – Predicted Winner

Makeup & Hairstyling

• “A Different Man”
• “Emilia Perez”
• “Nosferatu”
• “The Substance” – Predicted Winner
• “Wicked”

Visual Effects

• “Alien: Romulus”
• “Better Man”
• “Dune: Part Two” – Predicted Winner
• “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
• “Wicked”

Sound

• “A Complete Unknown”
• “Dune: Part Two” – Predicted Winner
• “Emilia Perez”
• “Wicked”
• “The Wild Robot”

Score

• “The Brutalist” – Predicted Winner
• “Conclave”
• “Emilia Perez”
• “Wicked”
• “The Wild Robot”

Song

• “Never Too Late” | Elton John: Never Too Late
• “Mi Camino” | Emilia Perez
• “El Mal” | Emilia Perez – Predicted Winner
• “Like a Bird” | Sing Sing
• “The Journey” | The Six Triple Eight

Documentary Short

• “Death by Numbers”
• “I Am Ready, Warden”
• “Incident”
• “Instruments of a Beating Heart”
• “The Only Girl in the Orchestra” – Predicted Winner

Animated Short

• “Beautiful Men”
• “In the Shadow of the Cypress”
• “Maybe Elephants”
• “Wander to Wonder” – Predicted Winner
• “Yuck!”

Live Action Short

• “A Lien”
• “Anuja” – Predicted Winner
• “I’m Not a Robot”
• “The Last Ranger”
• “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”

The 97th Academy Awards ceremony will be held on Sunday 2nd March 2025

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