Rather interestingly, Lead Actress is a category where all but one of the potential contenders have had their performances seen, whether they have had their respective films premiere at Cannes, TIFF, Venice or Telluride. The only outlier who is yet to have their performance judged so far in 2025 is Cynthia Erivo for her returning performance as Elphaba in “Wicked: For Good”. Despite it remaining sight unseen, given her string of nominees across the guilds and the Academy for her performance in the first film last year, I thing it is pretty safe to say that Erivo is a shoe-in for a Lead Actress nomination yet again here.
Erivo’s strongest challengers at this moment appear to be Jessie Buckley and Renate Reinsve for their performances in the heavily tipped “Hamnet” and “Sentimental Value” respectively, with all three actresses looking to secure their first ever Academy Award. Rounding out potential nominees include Amanda Seyfried, Rose Byrne, Tessa Thompson, along with previous winners of the award, Julia Roberts, Emma Stone and Jennifer Lawrence.
Full list of Lead Actress predictions – September 2025:
Strong Contenders
- Jessie Buckley “Hamnet”
- Cynthia Erivo “Wicked: For Good”
- Renate Reinsve “Sentimental Value”
- Amanda Seyfried “The Testament of Ann Lee”
- Emma Stone “Bugonia”
Possible Contenders
- Rose Byrne “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
- Julia Roberts “After the Hunt”
- Jennifer Lawrence “Die, My Love”
- June Squibb “Eleanor the Great”
- Tessa Thompson “Hedda”
Outsiders
- Rebecca Ferguson “A House of Dynamite”
- Sydney Sweeney “Christy”
- Eva Victor “Sorry, Baby”
- Laura Dern “Is This Thing On?”
- Jessica Lange “Long Day’s Journey into Night”
Check out my Movie Reviews and other way-too-early Oscar Predictions via the links below.
Dan Loves Film 
Interesting line up! The A24 rankings gave me a few new contenders for my TBW list 😎
LikeLiked by 1 person