As for Original and Adapted Screenplay nominations, it is always safe to predict those films that I am expecting to get into the Best Picture line-up, or at least in and around it. Therefore, films like “Sentimental Value”, “Sinners”, “Marty Supreme” and Palme d’Or winner “It Was Just an Accident” have to be in consideration, with all four looking likely to be set for a nomination at this stage.
As for the final slot, there may be only one or two films with a chance of sneaking it, with Noah Baumbach‘s “Jay Kelly”, and Netflix’s “A House of Dynamite”, penned by Noah Oppenheimer, being the most likely despite the formers lukewarm critical response out of the festivals.
Personally I would love to see Zach Cregger or Eva Victor nominated for their work on “Weapons” and “Sorry, Baby” but this is looking increasingly unlikely.
Full list of Original Screenplay predictions – September 2025:
Strong Contenders
- “Sentimental Value” (Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt)
- “Sinners” (Ryan Coogler)
- “It Was Just an Accident” (Jafar Panahi)
- “Marty Supreme” (Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie)
- “Jay Kelly” (Emily Mortimer, Noah Baumbach)
Possible Contenders
- “A House of Dynamite” (Noah Oppenheimer)
- “Sorry, Baby” (Eva Victor)
- “Rental Family” (Stephen Blahut, Hikari)
- “Weapons” (Zach Cregger)
- “The Testament of Ann Lee” (Mona Fastvold, Brady Corbet)
Outsiders
- “Is This Thing On?” (Mark Chappell, Wall Arnett, Bradley Cooper)
- “The Secret Agent” (Kleber Mendonca Filho)
- “After the Hunt” (Nora Garrett)
- “Anemone” (Daniel Day-Lewis, Ronan Day-Lewis)
- “Materialists” (Celine Song)
Check out my Movie Reviews and other way-too-early Oscar Predictions via the links below.
Dan Loves Film 
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