Plenty has happened since my previous predictions back in September, as we have had a few of the televised precursors take place, not to mention numerous critics groups during the season. The Golden Globes and the Critics’ Choice Awards have been and gone, with guild nominations at PGA, SGA and the Actor’s Awards (formerly SAG), all being announced last week. Whilst the BAFTA nominations come one week after the Oscar nominations this year, they released their longlists recently, giving us additional indication as to what films to expect come Oscar nomination morning on 22nd January.
Having established itself as the first real contender of the year back in April, Ryan Coogler‘s “Sinners”, still is looking likely to receive a healthy number of nominations as it appears to be the second or third favourite for for the top prize having been usurped by both “Hamnet” and “One Battle After Another”.
Paul Thomas Anderson‘s action-thriller was oddly absent from the festival circuit in 2025, but released to universal acclaim and has gone onto become a favourite amongst the various critics groups. It also took home top prizes at both Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes in recent weeks. Similarly, “Hamnet” has faired well having won the People’s Choice Award at TIFF back in September, as well as the Golden Globe for Drama, beating out “Sinners” in the process.
Other films almost certain to join these three in the best picture line-up include “Marty Supreme”, “Frankenstein”, “Sentimental Value”, and “Bugonia”, as all four were among the ten PGA nominees, as well as heavily featuring throughout the season. The former two also recieved nominations at DGA and at the Actor Award’s for Ensemble.
The final three slots are seemingly between seven or eight films at this late stage in the season, with International films “The Secret Agent”, “It Was Just an Accident” and “No Other Choice” looking to join “Sentimental Value” in Best Picture. While the latter two have dropped off in recent weeks, “The Secret Agent” is surging following its two Golden Globe wins at the weekend, and is looking likely to repeat the success of fellow Brazil production “I’m Still Here” last year. Other potential nominees could include Netflix drama “Train Dreams”, which will likely get a cinematography nomination, and possible Adapted Screenplay, Lead Actor for Joel Edgerton, Score and Song, plus it also secured a PGA nomination last week.
Four genre picks are also looking to get a Best Picture nomination; racing movie “F1” which is likely to pick up a few technical nominations and perhaps a win in Sound, fantasy films “Avatar: Fire and Ash” and “Wicked: For Good” which will be looking to repeat the success of their respective predecessors, and horror movie “Weapons”, which got into PGA, and is sure to get a Supporting Actress nomination for Amy Madigan as well as a potential Screenplay nomination.
Final Best Picture predictions:
Strong Contenders
- “One Battle After Another” | Warner Bros. | dir. Paul Thomas Anderson
- “Hamnet” | Focus Features | dir. Chloe Zhao
- “Sinners” | Warner Bros. | dir. Ryan Coogler
- “Marty Supreme” | A24 | dir. Josh Safdie
- “Frankenstein” | Netflix | dir. Guillermo del Toro
- “Sentimental Value” | Neon | dir. Joachim Trier
- “Bugonia” | Focus Features | dir. Yorgos Lanthimos
- “The Secret Agent” | Neon | dir. Kleber Mendonca Filho
- “It Was Just an Accident” | Neon | dir. Jafar Panahi
- “Train Dreams” | Netflix | dir. Clint Bentley
Possible Contenders
- “F1” | Warner Bros. | dir. Joseph Kosinski
- “No Other Choice” | Neon | dir. Park Chan-wook
- “Wicked: For Good” | Universal | dir. Jon M. Chu
- “Weapons” | Warner Bros. | dir. Zach Cregger
- “Avatar: Fire and Ash” | 20th Century | dir. James Cameron
Nominations for the 98th Academy Awards are announced Thursday 22nd January
Dan Loves Film 
Leave a comment