98th Academy Awards – Final Predictions

Will “Sinners” or “One Battle After Another” take home the top prize at the 98th Academy Awards this Sunday 15th March

After almost a year of guessing potential winners at the 98th academy awards, it is time to make my final predictions with the ceremony taking place this coming Sunday, the 15th March. While I am confident in a handful of categories, such as Lead Actress, Director, both Screenplays, and a few technical categories, a majority of above the line categories remain up in the air. These incredibly unpredictable races will ultimately indicate as to which of either “Sinners” or “One Battle After Another” will take the night’s top prize.

I have listed my predicted winner and any potential winners per category, expressing how I expect each individual race to go. It is incredibly tight this year between Ryan Coogler and Paul Thomas Anderson‘s films, especially with a late resurgence from Michael B. Jordan as a potential Lead Actor winner. I expected Anderson’s epic thriller to run away with the awards at the Oscars this year, but an extra-long award season this year has seen a late shift in momentum in “Sinners” favour, but will prove to be enough, lets not forget the vampire horror is the most nominated film in Oscar history.

Final Predictions:

Best Picture:

This is effectively a two horse race, and will come down to the individual battles that “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” win on the night. Both films can walk away with healthy packages, with the former looking likely to win in Direction, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, and Cinematography, as well as potentially winning two acting awards in the Supporting categories. This would mean with Best picture it could walk away with 7 awards on the night.

“Sinners” also could rack up a few wins if things go its way on the night. The period horror is expected to win awards for Original Screenplay, Casting, and Score, but could potentially win awards in Supporting Actress, Lead Actor, and Song, as well as potentially beating out its nearest rival in both editing and Cinematography. Even if it fails to be “One Battle After Another” in these categories, but picks up two acting awards and song, “Sinners” would also be looking at a haul of seven awards if it was to win Best Picture.

It is very close, but I feel “One Battle After Another” may just edge it with Paul Thomas Anderson’s narrative proving too strong.

• “Bugonia” | Focus Features | dir. Yorgos Lanthimos
• “F1” | Warner Bros. | dir. Joseph Kosinski
• “Frankenstein” | Netflix | dir. Guillermo del Toro
• “Hamnet” | Focus Features | dir. Chloe Zhao
• “Marty Supreme” | A24 | dir. Josh Safdie
• “One Battle After Another” | Warner Bros. | dir. Paul Thomas Anderson
• “The Secret Agent” | Neon | dir. Kleber Mendonca Filho
• “Sentimental Value” | Neon | dir. Joachim Trier
• “Sinners” | Warner Bros. | dir. Ryan Coogler
• “Train Dreams” | Netflix | dir. Clint Bentley

• Predicted Winner: “One Battle After Another”
• Potential Winner: “Sinners”

Director:

One of the more predictable categories of the night. While I do think there is an outside shot that Ryan Coogler could surprise here, I see nothing other than a Paul Thomas Anderson win. The beloved filmmaker has never won an Oscar at eleven times of asking, and that will change on Sunday when he will walk away with at least two awards, this being one of them.

• Paul Thomas Anderson “One Battle After Another”
• Ryan Coogler “Sinners”
• Josh Safdie “Marty Supreme”
• Joachim Trier “Sentimental Value”
• Chloe Zhao “Hamnet”

• Predicted Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson
• Potential Winner: Ryan Coogler

Actor in a Leading Role:

What a juicy race this has become. It was a one horse race for most of the season, with Timothee Chalamet winning everywhere for months and seeming to be untouchable. However, having lost out at BAFTA to Robert Aramayo – who is not nominated at the Oscars – and having missed out on The Actor Award, losing to Michael B. Jordan, the tide may have shifted in the latter’s favour. Jordan also had a stronger narrative during the Oscar voting due to the unfortunate incident at the BAFTAs, which has fuelled the “Sinners” fire at a pivotal time in the awards race.

It is incredibly tough to call, a flip of the coin, but I think it is finally Timmy’s time.

• Timothee Chalamet “Marty Supreme”
• Leonardo DiCaprio “One Battle After Another”
• Ethan Hawke “Blue Moon”
• Michael B. Jordan “Sinners”
• Wagner Moura “The Secret Agent”

• Predicted Winner: Timothee Chalamet
• Potential Winner: Michael B. Jordan

Actress in a Leading Role:

Arguably the biggest lock of the night. While I would be over the moon if Rose Byrne took this home having given my personal favourite performance of the year, Jessie Buckley has won literally everywhere, and firmly has one hand on that Oscar days before the ceremony. At least the other four nominees get to attend.

• Jessie Buckley “Hamnet”
• Rose Byrne “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
• Kate Hudson “Song Sung Blue”
• Renate Reinsve “Sentimental Value”
• Emma Stone “Bugonia”

• Predicted Winner: Jessie Buckley
• Potential Winner: Rose Byrne

Actor in a Supporting Role:

What a rollercoaster of a race this has been, with multiple winners over the televised award shows. Benicio del Toro has done the best with critics, but has failed to show up where it has mattered. Early momentum was with Jacob Elordi following his win at Critics’ Choice, before the early season favourite Stellan Skarsgard took over following his win at the Golden Globes. However, it looks like Sean Penn will be leaving the ceremony with his third career Oscar. The veteran actor has won twice before for leading roles in “Mystic River” and “Milk”, and having won at both BAFTA and The Actor Awards, he may be joining a select group of actors with three statuettes.

• Benicio del Toro “One Battle After Another”
• Jacob Elordi “Frankenstein”
• Delroy Lindo “Sinners”
• Sean Penn “One Battle After Another”
• Stellan Skarsgard “Sentimental Value”

• Predicted Winner: Sean Penn
• Potential Winner: Stellan Skarsgard

Actress in a Supporting Role:

Another tough one. Similarly to Supporting Actor, the Supporting Actress race has seen multiple televised winners, with Amy Madigan winning at Critics’ Choice and The Actor Awards, with Teyana Taylor and Wunmi Mosaku winning at Golden Globes and BAFTA in-between. Will the Oscar’s go down the career achievement approach for Madigan, or award one of performers who star in the Best Picture frontrunners. It is so incredibly tight, and I think a Taylor or Mosaku win could determine the eventual Best Picture winner, therefore I am going with Teyana Taylor to remain consistent.

Elle and Inga, have a nice evening.

• Elle Fanning “Sentimental Value”
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas “Sentimental Value”
• Amy Madigan “Weapons”
• Wunmi Mosaku “Sinners”
• Teyana Taylor “One Battle After Another”

• Predicted Winner: Teyana Taylor
• Potential Winners: Wunmi Mosaku and Amy Madigan

Original Screenplay:

Pretty much a guaranteed “Sinners” win here given its Best Picture chances. Nothing more to say than only a shock from “Sentimental Value” would ruin its chances at the top prize.

• “Blue Moon” (Robert Kaplow)
• “It Was Just an Accident” (Jafar Panahi)
• “Marty Supreme” (Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie)
• “Sentimental Value” (Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt)
• “Sinners” (Ryan Coogler)

• Predicted Winner: “Sinners”
• Potential Winner: “Sentimental Value”

Adapted Screenplay:

Similarly to Original Screenplay, I see nothing but a win for “One Battle After Another” here, barring a “Hamnet” upset.

• “Bugonia” (Will Tracy)
• “Frankenstein” (Guillermo del Toro)
• “Hamnet”(Chloe Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell)
• “One Battle After Another” (Paul Thomas Anderson)
• “Train Dreams”(Greg Kwedar, Clint Bentley)

• Predicted Winner: “One Battle After Another”
• Potential Winner: “Hamnet”

Casting:

An interesting one given that this is a newly introduced category. Precursors indicate a “Sinners” win here, although personally I found the casting in “Marty Supreme” to be inspired. The Academy could do anything as it is hard to see what they determine as good casting, but “Sinners” seems the safe choice.

• “Hamnet”
• “Marty Supreme”
• “One Battle After Another”
• “The Secret Agent”
• “Sinners”

• Predicted Winner: “Sinners”
• Potential Winner: “One Battle After Another”

International Feature:

Given its nomination haul in the above the line categories, “Sentimental Value” is the clear choice here, with its only competition coming from fellow Best Picture nominee “The Secret Agent”, which is looking to repeat last year’s win for Brazil in this category.

• “It Was Just an Accident”
• “The Secret Agent”
• “Sentimental Value”
• “Sirat”
• “The Voice of Hind Rajab”

• Predicted Winner: “Sentimental Value”
• Potential Winner: “The Secret Agent”

Documentary Feature:

“The Perfect Neighbour” has swept the whole season apart from losing out to “Mr. Nobody Against Putin” at BAFTA, most likely due to our British tendencies not relating to middle American issues as much. That being said the Netflix documentary seems the safe choice.

• “The Alabama Solution”
• “Come See Me in the Good Light”
• “Cutting Through Rocks”
• “Mr. Nobody Against Putin”
• “The Perfect Neighbour”

• Predicted Winner: “The Perfect Neighbour”
• Potential Winner: “Mr. Nobody Against Putin”

Animated Feature:

It is hard to bet against the global phenomenon that is “KPop Demon Hunters”, but with recent wins at a few award shows, as well as breaking the all time box-office record for an animated film, “Zootropolis 2” could surprise here, or even “Little Amelie” if the Academy continue to champion International animations.

• “Arco”
• “Elio”
• “KPop Demon Hunters”
• “Little Amelie or the Character of Rain”
• “Zootropolis 2”

• Predicted Winner: “KPop Demon Hunters”
• Potential Winner: “Zootropolis 2”

Cinematography:

Having won the ASC, everything points towards a win for “One Battle After Another”, but a “Sinners” win here could indicate a Best Picture win for the horror. One to keep an eye on early in the ceremony if there are any momentum shifts.

• “Frankenstein”
• “Marty Supreme”
• “One Battle After Another”
• “Sinners”
• “Train Dreams”

• Predicted Winner: “One Battle After Another”
• Potential Winner: “Sinners”

Editing:

Similar to Cinematography, “One Battle After Another” has performed the best across the Editing branches, however, “Sinners” also won in its respective category at the Eddie’s two weeks ago. It is another two horse race which could determine the Best Picture winner, or “F1” could take it and tell us absolutely nothing since the Academy love their racing movies in this category.

• “F1”
• “Marty Supreme”
• “One Battle After Another”
• “Sentimental Value”
• “Sinners”

• Predicted Winner: “One Battle After Another”
• Potential Winners: “F1” and “Sinners”

Production Design:

The next three categories, Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup & Hairstyling are all looking incredibly likely to go to “Frankenstein”. Guillermo del Toro‘s gothic horror has swept all three categories all season, and with no “Wicked: for Good” in contention, its closest competitor across the three tech categories is “Sinners”, which I highly doubt will take any, but if it did it would indicate an overperformance and potential Best Picture win.

• “Frankenstein”
• “Hamnet”
• “Marty Supreme”
• “One Battle After Another”
• “Sinners”

• Predicted Winner: “Frankenstein”
• Potential Winner: “Sinners”

Costume Design:

• “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
• “Frankenstein”
• “Hamnet”
• “Marty Supreme”
• “Sinners”

• Predicted Winner: “Frankenstein”
• Potential Winner: “Sinners”

Makeup and Hairstyling:

• “Frankenstein”
• “Kokuho”
• “Sinners”
• “The Smashing Machine”
• “The Ugly Stepsister”

• Predicted Winner: “Frankenstein”
• Potential Winner: “Sinners”

Visual Effects:

“Avatar: Fire and Ash” wins. We move along. The Academy could surprise but I cannot see them overlooking the best and biggest VFX of the year, even if the film itself failed to match the nomination haul of its two predecessors.

• “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
• “F1”
• “Jurassic Park Rebirth”
• “The Lost Bus”
• “Sinners”

• Predicted Winner: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
• Potential Winner: “F1”

Sound:

Another category that “Sinners” could get an additional statuette. While I am predicting a win for “F1” given the Academy’s favouritism towards racing movies in this category, a win for “Sinners” would be an additional award for its potential best Picture package.

• “F1”
• “Frankenstein”
• “One Battle After Another”
• “Sinners”
• “Sirat”

• Predicted Winner: “F1”
• Potential Winner: “Sinners”

Score:

One of “Sinners” guaranteed wins here, and another Oscar win for Ludwig Goransson. I would love to se a Jonny Greenwood win, with the Radiohead guitarist somehow never having won the award in this category, famously snubbed for “There Will Be Blood” in 2008 with his score being deemed ineligible.

• “Bugonia” (Jerskin Fendrix)
• “Frankenstein”(Alexander Desplat)
• “Hamnet” (Max Richter)
• “One Battle After Another” (Jonny Greenwood)
• “Sinners” (Ludwig Goransson)

• Predicted Winner: “Sinners”
• Potential Winner: “One Battle After Another”

Original Song:

Can one of the biggest songs of 2025 lose this award. “Golden” has stormed the charts and the awards this past year, and I think only an overperforming “Sinners” can stop it, but it is unlikely. Two awards on the night for “KPop Demon Hunters” looking likely, more than “Marty Supreme” and “Hamnet”.

• Dear Me “Diane Warren: Relentless”
• Golden “KPop Demon Hunters”
• I Lied to You “Sinners”
• Sweet Dreams of Joy “Viva Verdi!”
• Train Dreams “Train Dreams”

• Predicted Winner: “KPop Demon Hunters”
• Potential Winner: “Sinners”

Documentary Short:

The shorts are always incredibly hard to predict, I faired bad enough on my nomination predictions. So all three categories are anyone’s game, therefore I am simply going for the bookie’s favourite across the board.

• “All the Empty Rooms”
• “Armed Only with a Camera”
• “Children No More: Were and Are Gone”
• “The Devil is Busy”
• “Perfectly a Strangeness”

• Predicted Winner: “All the Empty Rooms”
• Potential Winner: Any of the above

Animated Short:

• “Autokar”
• “Forevergreen”
• “The Girl Who Cried Pearls”
• “Retirement Plan”
• “The Three Sisters”

• Predicted Winner: “Butterfly”
• Potential Winner: Any of the above

Live Action Short:

• “Butcher’s Stain”
• “A Friend of Dorothy”
• “Jane Austin’s Period Drama”
• “The Singers”
• “Two People Exchanging Saliva”

• Predicted Winner: “The Singers”
• Potential Winner: Any of the above

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