Best Picture Predictions: December 2024

We are swiftly approaching the end of the calendar year, which means the Academy Award nomination announcements are only a matter of weeks away. I have been predicting across all categories throughout the year, going all the way back to March, and it is interesting to see how my predictions have changed as contenders have either emerged or dropped off over the past nine months.

Now that we have seen the nominations from both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice, we have a much stronger indication as to what films will perform well at the upcoming 97th Oscars in March. Barely missing out on best film nominations across the board are six titles: “Anora”, “The Brutalist”, “Conclave”, “Dune: Part Two”, “Emilia Perez” and “Wicked”, all of which are expected to land a Best Picture nomination on the 17th January. Less certain, but still heavily favoured to land nominations are “Sing Sing” and “Nickel Boys”, despite the former surprisingly missing out at the Globes in Picture – Drama.

This leaves two slots potentially up for grabs, and I believe there to be five movies fighting for these final slots. “A Real Pain” and “A Complete Unknown” have barely missed anywhere so far, although the former did miss out at critics Choice, and the latter was still benefiting from strong, early word-of-mouth prior to the lukewarm critical reviews following the recent review embargo, which could now see it drop off. A critic and audience favourite that many, including myself, are hoping for a Best Picture nomination is Coralie Fargeat‘s body horror “The Substance”, which if it were to be nominated, would be a huge achievement for the horror genre. The final two contenders are “Challengers”, which is having a late resurgence having been released way back in March, and “September 5”, which effectively snatched the final slot at the Globes away from “Sing Sing”.

Full list of Best Picture predictions – December 2024:

Strong Contenders

1. “Anora” | Neon | dir. Sean Baker
2. “The Brutalist” | A24 | dir. Brady Corbet
3. “Wicked” | Universal | dir. Jon M. Chu
4. “Conclave” | Focus Features | dir. Edward Berger
5. “Dune: Part Two” | Warner Bros.| dir. Denis Villeneuve
6. “Emilia Perez” | Netflix | dir. Jacques Audiard
7. “Sing Sing” | A24 | dir. Greg Kwedar
8. “Nickel Boys” | Amazon MGM Studios| dir. RaMell Ross
9. “A Real Pain” | Searchlight | dir. Jesse Eisenberg
10. “The Substance” | Mubi | dir. Coralie Fargeat

Possible Contenders

1. “A Complete Unknown” | Searchlight | dir. James Mangold
2. “Challengers” | Amazon MGM Studios | dir. Luca Guadagnino
3. “September 5” | Paramount | dir. Tim Fehlbaum
4. “Gladiator II” | Paramount | dir. Ridley Scott
5. “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” | Neon | dir. Mohammad Rasoulof
6. “Blitz” | Apple | dir. Steve McQueen
7. “Saturday Night” | Sony | dir. Jason Reitman
8. “Nosferatu” | Focus Features | dir. Robert Eggers
9. “Queer” | A24 | dir. Luca Guadagnino
10. “I’m Still Here” | Sony Pictures Classics | dir. Walter Salles

Outsiders

1. “All We Imagine as Light” | Sideshow | dir. Payal Kapadia
2. “The Piano Lesson” | Netflix | dir. Malcom Washington
3. “The Room Next Door” | Sony | dir. Pedro Almodóvar
4. “The Wild Robot” | Universal | dir. Chris Sanders
5. “The Apprentice” | Briarcliff | dir. Ali Abbasi
6. “Juror #2” | Warner Bros. | dir. Clint Eastwood
7. “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” | Warner Bros. | dir. George Miller
8. “A Different Man” | A24 | dir. Aaron Schimberg
9. “His Three Daughters” | Netflix | dir. Azazel Jacobs
10. “Maria” | Netflix | dir. Pablo Larrain

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