Final Oscar Predictions

Having been delayed a week as a result of the devastating wildfires that engulfed the Los Angeles area, the nominations for the 97th Academy Awards are now scheduled to be announced this coming Thursday. Ever since last year’s ceremony, I have been making my predictions throughout the year, with my previous nominations being in December. Even in the past few weeks though, a lot has changed with several films either gaining, or losing momentum as a result of recent Guild nominations, last week’s BAFTA nominations, and of course the Golden Globes earlier this month.

I am confident with about 70% of my overall predictions across all categories, with some like Animated Feature, proving to be a lot more straight forward than others, such as Supporting Actress.

List of my final nomination predictions for the 97th Academy Awards – nominees announced Thursday 23rd January:

Best Picture

It appears that 8 of the 10 nominees here are sure locks, with the final two slots up for grabs between four films. “A Real Pain” and “September 5” got major boosts recently thanks to their PGA nominations, a guild that perfectly matched the Academy last year. Where as other contenders, “Sing Sing” and “Nickel Boys”, have struggled to maintain momentum all award season. Despite its recognition at PGA, I am expecting “September 5” to miss here, with the more beloved “Sing Sing” taking the final slot, but I could easily be wrong.

1. “Anora” | Neon | dir. Sean Baker
2. “Conclave” | Focus Features | dir. Edward Berger
3. “The Brutalist” | A24 | dir. Brady Corbet
4. “Wicked” | Universal | dir. Jon M. Chu
5. “Emilia Perez” | Netflix | dir. Jacques Audiard
6. “A Complete Unknown” | Searchlight | dir. James Mangold
7. “Dune: Part Two” | Warner Bros.| dir. Denis Villeneuve
8. “The Substance” | Mubi | dir. Coralie Fargeat
9. “A Real Pain” | Searchlight | dir. Jesse Eisenberg
10. “Sing Sing” | A24 | dir. Greg Kwedar

Director

A category that has surprised in the past on nomination morning is Director, with international filmmakers such as Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Ruben Ostlund, Thomas Vinterberg, Justine Triet and Jonathan Glazer all getting nominations, despite being absent from most of their respective award seasons. This international contingent bodes well for Coralie Fargeat, who is looking most likely to secure the final slot. The four other slots will most likely comprise of the directors behind this year’s four biggest Oscar contenders. Brady Corbet, Sean Baker, Jacques Audiard and Edward Berger, none of whom have missed any major precursor so far, including BAFTA, Globes and DGA.

Fargeat has only missed DGA, where James Mangold was the surprise fifth nominee, but I cannot see the “A Complete Unknown” director repeating this feat on Thursday.

1. Brady Corbet “The Brutalist”
2. Sean Baker “Anora”
3. Jacques Audiard “Emilia Perez”
4. Edward Berger “Conclave”
5. Coralie Fargeat “The Substance”

Actor in a Leading Role

Possibly one of the most predictable categories of the night, with all five actors basically having been nominated everywhere all award season. The only outlier being Daniel Craig who missed out on home turf at BAFTA, where fellow Brit, Hugh Grant, was nominated for “Heretic” alongside Sebastian Stan for “The Apprentice”. I still expect Craig to get his first career nomination here but Stan still has an outside shot.

1. Adrien Brody “The Brutalist”
2. Ralph Fiennes “Conclave”
3. Colman Domingo “Sing Sing”
4. Timothee Chalamet “A Complete Unknown”
5. Daniel Craig “Queer”

Actress in a Leading Role

Similar to Actor, the Lead Actress category has four almost certain locks for a nomination. Mikey Madison, Demi Moore, Karla Sofia Gascon and Cynthia Erivo are all yet to miss anywhere this season, however the final slot is tricker to predicts than the male category. I am currently going with Fernanda Torres off the back of her Golden Globe win for “I’m Still Here”, as I believe the international voters will give her backing. There is potential though for either Nicole Kidman, Pamela Anderson, Marianne Jean-Baptiste or Angelina Jolie to sneak into that final slot, and it is very difficult to call even days before the nominations.

1. Mikey Madison “Anora”
2. Demi Moore “The Substance”
3. Karla Sofia Gascon “Emilia Perez”
4. Cynthia Erivo “Wicked”
5. Fernanda Torres “I’m Still Here”

Actor in a Supporting Role

A not so competitive category is Supporting Actor, despite some early season surges from the likes of Denzel Washington, Bryan Tyree Henry and Stanley Tucci. All five of the actors below I am predicted have performed well this season, with Kieran Culkin cementing himself as the clear frontrunner. The strongest contender who could make an appearance amongst Thursday’s nominees, is Clarence Maclin. The “Sing Sing” star was a category frontrunner for months before the film gradually fell out of contention across multiple categories. He has showed up in some precursors, including last week’s BAFTA nominations, so he has more than a chance.

1. Kieran Culkin “A Real Pain”
2. Guy Pearce “The Brutalist”
3. Yura Borisov “Anora”
4. Edward Norton “A Complete Unknown”
5. Jeremy Strong “The Apprentice”

Actress in a Supporting Role

Undoubtedly the most up-in-the-air category of them all. Supporting Actress has been an insanely unpredictable category all season, with only two slots being locked in just days before nominations are announced. Zoe Saldana and Ariana Grande are almost guaranteed nominations at this point, having been the only two actresses to appear at all precursors. Meanwhile, potentially EIGHT! actresses are battling it for the final three slots, and to be honest, your guess is as good as mine. The already stacked line-up saw new competition added recently with Jamie Lee Curtis and Monica Barbaro earning SAG nominations, Curtis also secured a BAFTA nom for her role in “The Last Showgirl”

I am not confident in my predictions but I expect Felicity Jones, Isabella Rossellini and Curtis to get in, purely based on current momentum. This would see Margaret Qualley, Selena Gomez, Monica Barbaro, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor and Danielle Deadwyler miss out.

1. Zoe Saldana “Emilia Perez”
2. Ariana Grande “Wicked”
3. Felicity Jones “The Brutalist”
4. Isabella Rossellini “Conclave”
5. Jamie Lee Curtis “The Last Showgirl”

Original Screenplay

The screenplay categories usually serve up little in terms of surprises, I expect that to continue here. There are four locks in Original Screenplay, with sure Best Picture nominees “Anora”, “The Brutalist” and “The Substance”, and potential Best Picture nominee, and generally strong screenplay contender “A Real Pain”. The final slot could be between a few pictures, but I expect it to go to another film vying for a Best Picture slot, “September 5”, but personally would love to see “Challengers” here.

1. “Anora” (Sean Baker)
2. “The Brutalist” (Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold)
3. “A Real Pain” (Jesse Eisenberg)
4. “The Substance” (Coralie Fargeat)
5. “September 5” (Tim Fehlbaum, Moritz Binder)

Adapted Screenplay

Like last year, the more competitive screenplay category this year is Adapted. There are seven potential Best Picture nominees looking to secure a nomination on Thursday, which could see two major blockbusters miss out. Despite their strengths below the line, both “Dune: Part Two” and “Wicked” could both miss out here, as they are not seen as much as screenplay achievements. “Conclave” is looking hard to beat for the award itself, whilst “Emilia Perez” and “A Complete Unknown” will most likely build on their current season momentum.

Regardless of their Best Picture outcome, I still expect both “Sing Sing” and “Nickel Boys” to show up here, purely down to the strength of their screenplays.

1. “Conclave” (Peter Straughan)
2. “Emilia Perez” (Jacques Audiard)
3. “A Complete Unknown” (James Mangold, Jay Cocks)
4. “Sing Sing” (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar)
5. “Nickel Boys” (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes)

Animated Feature

The easiest category to predict, as is often the case. I cannot see anything other than the five films below being nominated here, unless the Academy decide to throw a bone to “Moana 2”.

1. “The Wild Robot” | Universal | dir. Chris Sanders
2. “Inside Out 2” | Disney | dir. Kelsey Mann
3. “Flow”| Janus | dir. Gints Zilbalodis
4. “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” | Netflix | dir. Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham
5. “Memoir of a Snail” | IFC | dir. Adam Elliot

International Feature

While I am not certain on the nominees, the winner of this category could not be any more obvious, with “Emilia Perez” being one of the year’s strongest contenders, and is likely to receive more nominations than any other film on Thursday. There can be some surprise exclusions in this category, but I am going to pay things relatively safe by predicting “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”, “I’m Sill Here”, “Kneecap” and “Vermiglio”. Although the Academy have history when it comes to being more left field with their picks here, so there are a few other shortlisted films that could likely make the cut.

1. “Emilia Perez” | France | dir. Jacques Audiard
2. “The Seed of a Sacred Fig” | Germany | dir. Mohammad Rasoulof
3. “I’m Still Here” | Brazil | dir. Walter Salles
4. “Kneecap” | Ireland | dir. Rich Peppiatt
5. “Vermiglio” | Italy | dir. Maura Delpero

Documentary Feature

1. “No Other Land” | Cinetic Media
2. “Sugarcane” | Variance
3. “Daughters” | Netflix
4. “Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat” | Kino Lorber
5. “Black Box Diaries” | MTV

Cinematography

1. “The Brutalist” | Lol Crawley
2. “Dune: Part Two” | Greig Fraser
3. “Conclave”| Stephane Fontaine
4. “Nickel Boys” | Jomo Fray
5. “Nosferatu” | Jarin Blaschke

Editing

1. “Anora” | Sean Baker
2. “Dune: Part Two”| Joe Walker
3. “The Brutalist” | David Jancso
4. “Conclave” | Nick Emerson
5. “Emilia Perez” | Juliette Welfling

Production Design

1. “Wicked”
2. “Dune: Part Two”
3. “The Brutalist”
4. “Gladiator II”
5. “Nosferatu”

Costume Design

1. “Wicked”
2. “Dune: Part Two”
3. “Gladiator II”
4. “Nosferatu”
5. “Conclave”

Makeup & Hairstyling

1. “The Substance”
2. “Wicked”
3. “Dune: Part Two”
4. “Nosferatu”
5. “A Different Man”

Visual Effects

1. “Dune: Part Two”
2. “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
3. “Wicked”
4. “Better Man”
5. “Gladiator II”

Sound

1. “Dune: Part Two”
2. “Wicked”
3. “Gladiator II”
4. “Emilia Perez”
5. “A Complete Unknown”

Score

1. “The Brutalist”
2. “Conclave”
3. “Challengers”
4. “Emilia Perez”
5. “The Wild Robot”

Song

1. “Mi Camino” | Emilia Perez
2. “El Mal” | Emilia Perez
3. “Kiss the Sky” | The Wild Robot
4. “The Journey” | The Six Triple Eight
5. “Compress/Repress” | Challengers

Documentary Short

1. “The Only Girl in the Orchestra”
2. “I Am Ready, Warden”
3. “Eternal Father”
4. “Incident”
5. “Chasing Roo”

Animated Short

1. “ME”
2. “Beautiful Man”
3. “A Bear Named Wojtek”
4. “A Crab in the Pool”
5. “In the Shadow of the Cypress”

Live Action Short

1. “Anuja”
2. “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”
3. “The Masterpiece”
4. “A Lien”
5. “Paris 70”

• 2025-2026 Movie Awards Season
  • 2026 Academy Award Predictions: June
  • 2026 Academy Award Predictions: September
• All Movie Reviews & Posts
• Movie Rankings
  • A24 Movies Ranked