Best Picture Predictions: June 2025

Now the Cannes Film Festival has concluded, we have our first slight indicator as to what films may show up at next year’s Academy Awards. Not only that, but we have also had a few more months of new releases to consider, and while films like “Mickey 17” may have fallen out of contention at the 98th Academy Awards, Ryan Coogler‘s universally loved “Sinners” has shot up in the rankings.

Whilst it was one of my most anticipated movies of the year, the period vampire horror was never considered an early awards player. However, critical and audiences acclaim, and an impressive box office haul has seen it become the only major theatrical release so far in 2025 to cement itself in the running. It is a rare for an early release to go on and win the coveted Academy Award for Best Picture, but you only need to go back to 2023 when “Everything Everywhere All at Once” took home Oscar gold despite a May release the year prior.

In terms of Cannes itself, the big winner of the festival was Jafar Panahi‘s Palme d’Or wining “It Was Just an Accident”, with Joachim Trier‘s “Sentimental Value” taking home the runner-up, Grand Prix award. Trier has previous with the Academy since his previous film, “The Worst Person in the World”, earnt him a nomination for Original Screenplay, and I think the Norwegian filmmaker will once again be at the ceremony in March 2026.

Other films that did their chances no harm at Cannes include Spanish-French production “Sirat”, and Brazilian political thriller “The Secret Agent”, with the latter potentially looking to benefit from the voting body that saw “I’m Still Here” get into Best Picture this year.

The only other possible contender that has been seen by audiences and critics is “The Life of Chuck”, which despite taking home the often pivotal People’s Choice Award at TIFF in 2024, saw its released pushed back to this coming Friday, removing it from last season’s Oscar race. With lukewarm reviews, and distribution delays I cannot see a win for Mike Flanagan‘s adaptation of the Stephen King story, but it definitely remains a contender.

Strong Contenders

1. “Wicked: For Good” | Universal | dir. Jon M. Chu
2. “Sinners” | Warner Bros. | dir. Ryan Coogler
3. “Sentimental Value” | Neon | dir. Joachim Trier
4. “Marty Supreme” | A24 | dir. Josh Safdie
5. “Avatar: Fire and Ash” | 20th Century | dir. James Cameron
6. “One Battle After Another” | Warner Bros. | dir. Paul Thomas Anderson
7. “Bugonia” | Focus Features | dir. Yorgos Lanthimos
8. “After the Hunt” | Amazon MGM | dir. Luca Guadagnino
9. “Jay Kelly” | Netflix | dir. Noah Baumbach
10. “Deliver Me from Nowhere” | 20th Century | dir. Scott Cooper

Possible Contenders

1. “The Secret Agent” | Neon | dir. Kleber Mendonca Filho
2. “It Was Just an Accident” | Neon | dir. Jafar Panahi
3. “Hamnet” | Focus Features | dir. Chloe Zhao
4. “The Rivals of Amziah King” | TBC | dir. Andrew Patterson
5. “The Life of Chuck” | Neon | dir. Mike Flanagan
6. “The Ballad of a Small Player” | Netflix | dir. Edward Berger
7. “Frankenstein” | Netflix | dir. Guillermo del Toro
8. “Die, My Love” | Mubi | die. Lynne Ramsay
9. “Rental Family” | Searchlight | dir. Hikari
10. “No Other Choice” | TBC | dir. Park Chan-wook

Outsiders

1. “Ann Lee” | TBC | dir. Mona Fastvold
2. “Sound of Falling” | Mubi | dir. Mascha Schilinski
3. “F1” | Warner bros. | dir. Joseph Kosinski
4. “Highest 2 Lowest” | Netflix | dir. Spike Lee
5. “The Smashing Machine” | A24 | dir. Benny Safdie
6. “Michael” | Lionsgate | dir. Antoine Fuqua
7. “Sorry, Baby” | A24 | dir. Eva Victor
8. “Materialists” | A24 | dir. Celine Song
9. “Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery” | Netflix | dir. Rian Johnson
10. “The History of Sound” | Focus Features | dir. Oliver Hermanus

• 2025-2026 Movie Awards Season
  • 2026 Academy Award Predictions: June
  • 2026 Academy Award Predictions: September
• All Movie Reviews & Posts
• Movie Rankings
  • A24 Movies Ranked