As for Original and Adapted Screenplay nominations, it is always safe to predict those films that I am expecting to get into the Best Picture line-up, or at least in and around it. Therefore, films like “Sentimental Value”, “Sinners”, “Marty Supreme” and Palme d’Or winner “It Was Just an Accident” have to be in consideration. Films that have already been screened but will likely fall short of a nomination include “Materialist”, “Sound of Falling”, and “The Phoenician Scheme”, with the more prestige Cannes releases looking more likely to land a nomination.
At this early stage I would consider Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt to be the frontrunners for the award, with the pair being nominated previously in 2022 for their work on “The Worst Person in the World”.
Full list of Original Screenplay predictions – June 2025:
Strong Contenders
- “Sentimental Value” (Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt)
- “Sinners” (Ryan Coogler)
- “Marty Supreme” (Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie)
- “Jay Kelly” (Emily Mortimer, Noah Baumbach)
- “After the Hunt” (Nora Garrett)
Possible Contenders
- “It Was Just an Accident” (Jafar Panahi)
- “The Rivals of Amziah King” (Andrew Patterson)
- “Rental Family” (Stephen Blahut, Hikari)
- “Sorry, Baby” (Eva Victor)
- “Ann Lee” (Mona Fastvold, Brady Corbet)
Outsiders
- “Materialists” (Celine Song)
- “The Secret Agent” (Kleber Mendonca Filho)
- “Ella McCay” (James L. Brooks)
- “Sound of Falling” (Louise Peter, Mascha Schilinski)
- “The Phoenician Scheme” (Wes Anderson)
Check out my Movie Reviews and other way-too-early Oscar Predictions via the links below.
Dan Loves Film 
Nice post
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