Following Cannes and Sundance earlier in the year, which distance themselves chronologically from award season, we have had to wait a few months to see how the highly anticipated award season contenders have faired with critics and audiences. Every awards year offers a wide range of possible Oscar contenders, most of which remain in the running despite being unseen until their world premiere at either TIFF, Venice of Telluride in the Autumn/Fall season.
While some potential heavy hitters in the past have failed to meet expectation, the festival circuit has seen a handful of previously overlooked releases shoot to the front of the pack after a suprise win at either Venice or TIFF in particular.
TIFF
History suggests that TIFF has the strongest correlation with the Academy when it comes to its winners, with 2011 being the only outlier when it has come to Best Picture nominations. That year saw Nadine Labaki‘s Lebanese comedy/drama “Where Do We Go Now?” take home the People’s Choice Award, which remains the only winner since 2008 to not go onto receive a Best Picture nomination at the following Academy Awards. Within that time, TIFF winners: “Slumdog Millionaire” (2008), “The King’s Speech” (2010), “12 Years a Slave” (2013), “La La Land” (2016), “Green Book” (2018), and “Nomadland” (2020), have all gone onto win the Academy’s big prize. However, this rhythm was disrupted this past year when the 2024 winner, “The Life of Chuck”, faced a delayed theatrical release, pushing it back to this upcoming award season. This delayed release, along with poor box office returns and mixed critical and public reactions have seen Mike Flanagan‘s fall down in the Oscar prediction rankings.
Despite this recent confusion, winning the top prize at TIFF still tends to path the way to Oscar nominations, which bodes well for Chloe Zhao‘s “Hamnet”. The historical drama recieved rave reviews out of the festival, so much so its win was heavily predicted prior to the announcement at the weekend. Netflix will also be hoping for potential Oscar contenders with their upcoming releases “Frankenstein” and “Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery”, which placed second and third respectively.
The other big winner was “No Other Choice”, with Park Chan-wook‘s satirical black comedy winning the inaugural International People’s Choice Award, narrowly beating out the heavily tipped “Sentimental Value”, asserting itself firmly in the Oscar conversation.
TIFF Winners:
People’s Choice Award: “Hamnet” | dir. Chloe Zhao
People’s Choice Award (First Runner Up): “Frankenstein” | dir. Guillermo del Toro
People’s Choice Award (Second Runner Up): “Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery” | dir. Rian Johnson
International People’s Choice Award: “No Other Choice” | dir. Park Chan-wook
International People’s Choice Award (First Runner Up): “Sentimental Value” | dir. Joachim Trier
International People’s Choice Award (Second Runner Up): “Homebound” | dir. Neeraj Ghaywan
People’s Choice Award for Documentaries: “The Road Between Us: The Ultimate Rescue” | dir. Barry Avrich
People’s Choice Award for Documentaries (First Runner Up): “EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert” | dir. Baz Luhrmann
People’s Choice Award for Documentaries (Second Runner Up): “You Had To Be There” | dir. Nick Davis
People’s Choice Award for Midnight Mass: “Nirvana the Band the Show the Movie” | dir. Matt Johnson
People’s Choice Award for Midnight Mass (First Runner Up): “Obsession” | dir. Curry Barker
People’s Choice Award for Midnight Mass (Second Runner Up): “The Furious” | dir. Kenji Tanigaki
La Biennale di Venezia
Venice does not quite match up with the Academy as well as TIFF when it comes to its winners, with only six Golden Lion winners going onto receive a Best Picture nomination, ten fewer than the festival’s Canadian counterpart. Out of those six winners; “The Wrestler” (2008), “The Shape of Water” (2017), “Roma” (2018), “Joker” (2019), “Nomadland” (2020) and “Poor Things” (2023), only two went onto win Best Picture at the Oscars the following Spring. This weaker correlation proved to be true last year with the 2024 Venice winner, “The Room Next Door”, failing to land a single Oscar nomination.
However, this is not to detract from an impressive win for festival circuit favourite Jim Jarmusch, who received this year’s Golden Lion for his comedy-drama anthology film, “Father Mother Sister Brother”. Despite being a household name for a number of decades now, Jarmusch has failed to make much of an impression at the Academy Awards, and I cannot see that changing this year.
The other notable winner at the festival was Benny Safdie, having claimed the directorial Silver Lion award for his MMA biopic “The Smashing Machine”. While many critics have claimed the film may be too unconventional for some audiences and Academy voters, it may prove to be the dramatic vehicle needed to land its star, Dwayne Johnson, his first Oscar nomination.
Venice Winners:
Golden Lion: “Father Mother Sister Brother” | dir. Jim Jarmusch
Grand Jury Prize: “The Voice of Hind Rajab” | dir. Kaouther Ben Hania
Special Jury Prize: “Below the Clouds” | dir. Gianfranco Rosi
Silver Lion: Benny Safdie | “The Smashing Machine”
Volpi Cup for Best Actress: Xin Zhilei | “The Sun Rises on Us All”
Volpi Cup for Best Actor: Toni Servillo | “La grazia”
Golden Osella for Best Screenplay: Valerie Donzelli and Gilles Marchand | “At Work”
Marcello Mastroianni Award: Luna Wedler | “Silent Freind”
Telluride
Unlike Venice and TIFF, Telluride hands out no major rewards regarding the festival’s main programme as all films are seen as out of competition. However, the Silver Medallion is handed out for achievements in cinema, some of which may coincide with that given year. The three Silver Medallion recipients this year were Noah Baumbach, Ethan Hawke and Jafar Panahi.
With the major International Award bodies out the way, we are starting to get a clearer picture as to what may be in the running come Award Season in the new year. With the Critics’ Circles still to come, at this stage it is looking like anyone’s race with “no real early frontrunner “Hamnet” appearing to be edging frontrunner status.
Dan Loves Film 
Excited for Hamnet! Saw the preview on the big screen at Downtown Abbey premiere last weekend.
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So it looks like we are seeing the Best Picture race taking a bit of shape. The new Paul Thomas Anderson film with Leonardo DeCaprio had first reviews out and 97% positive. Cannot wait to see it
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Me neither, was worried when it wasnt doing the festivals but it is now well in the conversation
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