Plenty has happened since my previous predictions back in June, which at the time only had the likes of “Sinners” and the Cannes Festival line-up, had been seen by critics and audiences. Now however, the fall festival season has been and gone, and with reviews and awards coming out of Telluride, Toronto and Venice, we now have a much better indication as to which films may have a fighting shot at Oscar glory in 2026.
Establishing itself as the first contender of the year back in April, was Ryan Coogler‘s “Sinners”, with the musical vampire movie still looking on track to bag a Best Picture nomination with its hype still not waning almost six months on from its theatrical release. Other early contenders out of Cannes, such as Joachim Trier‘s “Sentimental Value” and the Palme d’Or winning “It Was Just an Accident”, also have kept up their momentum following successful fall festival campaigns, with the former placing as runner up in the inaugural International People’s Choice Award category at TIFF this year. Beating out “Sentimental Value” to the new award was Park Chan-wook‘s “No Other Choice”, with the long overdue Korean filmmaker looking to right the wrong’s of 2023 when his excellent “Decision to Leave” was shamefully overlooked across the board by the Academy.
The other big winner at TIFF was Chloe Zhao‘s adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell‘s novel “Hamnet”, with the 43-year-old Oscar winner looking to become the first woman to win two Best Director Oscars, following her film’s People’s Choice Award win last week. Netflix will be looking to boost the chances of their potential candidates “Frankenstein” and “Wake Up Dead Man” following their runner up placements at the festival. Another potential nominee for the streaming giant could come from another former female Oscar-winner, Kathryn Bigelow, whose latest film, nuclear war thriller, “A House of Dynamite”, received rave reviews following its premiere at Venice.
Films that have dropped in my predictions following disappointing showings across the festival circuit include Luca Guadagnino‘s “After the Hunt”, Netflix titles “Jay Kelly” and “Ballad of a Small Player”, and Hikari’s “Rental Family”. Out of the festivals, one film that has cemented itself as a frontrunner following universal acclaim ahead of its release next week, is Paul Thomas Anderson‘s “One Battle After Another”, with some critics hailing it as the filmmaker’s best work of an esteemed career. Top that off with the overdue narrative since Anderson has never won an Oscar despite being nominated eleven times, I think it is tough to deny at this stage.
Full list of Best Picture predictions – September 2025
Strong Contenders
- “One Battle After Another” | Warner Bros. | dir. Paul Thomas Anderson
- “Hamnet” | Focus Features | dir. Chloe Zhao
- “Sinners” | Warner Bros. | dir. Ryan Coogler
- “Sentimental Value” | Neon | dir. Joachim Trier
- “Wicked: For Good” | Universal | dir. Jon M. Chu
- “Marty Supreme” | A24 | dir. Josh Safdie
- “It Was Just an Accident” | Neon | dir. Jafar Panahi
- “No Other Choice” | TBC | dir. Park Chan-wook
- “Avatar: Fire and Ash” | 20th Century | dir. James Cameron
- “A House of Dynamite” | Netflix | dir. Kathryn Bigelow
Possible Contenders
- “Frankenstein” | Netflix | dir. Guillermo del Toro
- “Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere” | 20th Century | dir. Scott Cooper
- “Bugonia” | Focus Features | dir. Yorgos Lanthimos
- “Jay Kelly” | Netflix | dir. Noah Baumbach
- “The Testament of Ann Lee” | TBC | dir. Mona Fastvold
- “The Smashing Machine” | A24 | dir. Benny Safdie
- “Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery” | Netflix | dir. Rian Johnson
- “The Secret Agent” | Neon | dir. Kleber Mendonca Filho
- “Is This Thing On?” | Searchlight | dir. Bradley Cooper
- “Rental Family” | Searchlight | dir. Hikari
Outsiders
- “F1” | Warner bros. | dir. Joseph Kosinski
- “Die, My Love” | Mubi | die. Lynne Ramsay
- “Nouvelle Vague” | Netflix | dir. Richard Linklater
- “The Life of Chuck” | Neon | dir. Mike Flanagan
- “Train Dreams” | Netflix | dir. Clint Bentley
- “After the Hunt” | Amazon MGM | dir. Luca Guadagnino
- “Ballad of a Small Player” | Netflix | dir. Edward Berger
- “Sorry, Baby” | A24 | dir. Eva Victor
- “The Voice of Hind Rajab” | TBC | dir. Kaouther Ben Hania
- “Anemone” | Focus Features | dir. Ronan Day-Lewis
Dan Loves Film 
Terrific analysis…you are right that some films are highly anticipated but fall away once screened…or in the case of “The Story Of Chuck”, it’s bad box office showing doomed it.
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