Similar to Original Screenplay, Adapted will more than likely comprise of films that find themselves also securing a Best Picture nomination. However, there are more adapted contenders than original this year, so there is room for one or possible two Best Picture nominees missing out. One of which I could see being “Wicked: For Good”, which despite me anticipating it getting into the Best Picture line-up, I fear it will miss out on Screenplay just like the first film did this previous year.
Another film of pedigree I am still unsure of is 2024 TIFF People’s Choice Winner “The Life of Chuck”. Mike Flanagan‘s adaptation of the Stephen King novella has recieved a lukewarm reception from critics, and the initial buzz following its unprecedented win at Toronto may well have died down given the film’s delayed release. While the award has proven to be a strong indicator of past Oscar players, this delayed release may have a significant impact, but time shall time.
Those that have done well over the fall festival circuit, and likely to be in the Best Picture conversation include “Hamnet”, “Bugonia”, “No Other Choice”, “Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere”, “Frankenstein”, “Train Dreams”, and “Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery”. Whilst “One Battle After Another” has skyrocketed to the new Oscar frontrunner despite no festival showings, seeing it sitting atop the pile for now.
Full list of Adapted Screenplay predictions – September 2025:
Strong Contenders
- “One Battle After Another” (Paul Thomas Anderson)
- “Hamnet” (Chloe Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell)
- “Bugonia” (Will Tracy)
- “Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery” (Rian Johnson)
- “No Other Choice” (Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Lee Ja-hye, Don McKellar)
Possible Contenders
- “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” (Scott Cooper)
- “Frankenstein” (Guillermo del Toro)
- “Wicked: For Good” (Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox)
- “The Life of Chuck” (Mike Flanagan)
- “Train Dreams” (Greg Kwedar, Clint Bentley)
Outsiders
- “Ballad of a Small Player” (Rowan Joffe)
- “The Smashing Machine” (Benny Safdie)
- “Die My Love” (Enda Walsh, Lynne Ramsay, Alice Birch)
- “Nuremberg” (James Vanderbilt)
- “Hedda” (Nia DaCosta)
Check out my Movie Reviews and other way-too-early Oscar Predictions via the links below.
Dan Loves Film 
November
LikeLike